Kidero would win race if elections are held now – poll
A new opinion poll done in Nairobi county now shows that Governor Evans Kidero has an edge over his Jubilee opponents if elections were to be held today.
Dr Kidero has 46 per cent support while his closest challenger is Peter Kenneth with 20 per cent support.
Senator Mike Sonko has 16 per cent with Bishop Margaret Wanjiru coming fourth with two per cent ahead of Johnson Sakaja and Dennis Waweru who get one per cent each. 11 per cent of potential voters remain undecided.
Though the poll was conducted before Mr Sakaja opted out of the race for governor to run for Senate and before Mr Waweru decided to defend his Dagoretti South Constituency seat, it also shows that Dr Kidero has a higher support than Nasa, which has 42 per cent support, meaning that the governor has a small percentage of voters from other parties.
The Jubilee support is at 47 per cent whilst the support for Mr Kenneth, Mr Sonko, Bishop Wanjiru and Mr Sakaja and Mr Waweru is a total of 43 per cent.
JUBILEE MORE POPULAR
This shows an alignment between governor aspirants support and the party support. It also means that Jubilee is more poplar in the city than NASA.
The poll was conducted by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) between February 15 and 18, 2017 and targeted 3,115 respondents from across Nairobi.
Tifa has previously conducted two polls, in April and July last year.
In that period Kidero has moved from 28 per cent, 36 per cent and now to 46 per cent while Sonko has oscillated between 28 and 30 per cent and now at 18 per cent. Kenneth has been polled for the first time.
“Sonko has lost 12 per cent of support and this could have gone to Peter Kenneth. The loss of support from Dennis Waweru, Margaret Wanjiru and Sakaja could have moved to Peter Kenneth. Evans Kidero could also be gaining from the undecided and from Jubilee supporters who are not clear about who the party candidate will be,” said Tifa Managing Director Maggie Ireri.
NASA STRONGHOLDS
In terms of party affiliation the constituencies considered NASA strongholds are Kibra, Mathare, Embakasi Central and Dagoretti North while Jubilee ones are Kamukunji, Westlands, Embakasi South, Starehe, Dagoretti South, Roysambu and Kasarani.
“Jubilee appears to be ahead at it has 7 strongholds compared to NASA’s 4 constituencies. The election will be won in the battleground constituencies that include Madaraka, Embakasi East, Embakasi West and Embakasi North,” said Ms Ireri.
In the battle for National Assembly where all 17 seats are up for grabs, the poll shows that only eight MPs are likely to be re-elected having a strong showing of over 50 per cent with Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi leading the pack with 76 per cent approval rating.
The others are Simba Arati of Dagoreti North with 69 per cent, Tom Kajwang of Ruaraka with 68 per cent, Embakasi South MP Irshad Sumra with 66 per cent.
In Jubilee there is Yusuf Hassan of Kamukunji enjoying 65 approval rating, John Njoroge (Kasarani) 55 per cent, Benson Mutura (Makadara) 55 per cent and George Theuri (Embakasi West) with 53 per cent.
Those hanging on the balance with between 40 and 49 per cent are Maina Kamanda (Starehe), Waihenya Ndirangu (Roysambu), Ken Okoth (Kibra) and Mwangi Gakuya (Embakasi North).
RETAIN SEATS
Those who are polling below 40 per cent and therefore likely to face an herculean task to retain their seats are Dennis Waweru (Dagoreti South), Steven Kariuki (Mathare), John Omondi (Embakasi East), Joash Olum (Lang’ata) and John Ndirangu (Embakasi Central).
Again, it should be noted that Mr Waweru was during this poll thought to be gunning for the governorship.
