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Expect more rains and floods this month, Weatherman warns


Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has warned Kenyans to brace themselves for more rainfall this month compared to last month.

KMD Director Ms Stella Aura cautioned that the rains, coupled with the already saturated grounds, is likely to continue causing floods and landslides in affected parts of the country.

FEARS OF EL NINO

She explained that the difference in sea temperature – known as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – is currently highly positive at +2.06 which is quite favourable for enhanced rainfall in the country.

However, she allayed fears of an El Nino saying that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have remained neutral so far.

“Most parts of the country will experience above average rainfall during the month with November normally being the peak month for the October-November-December (OND) “short-rains” season,” said Ms Aura.

The director pointed out that most meteorological stations across the country recorded monthly rainfall totals that exceeded 200 percent of their October monthly Long-Term Means (LTMs).

“Several parts of the country experienced wet weather conditions during the month of October. The start of the seasonal rains (onset) was timely over several places with some areas especially over the north eastern where onset was slightly earlier than expected,” she said.

The outlook for November released by the weatherman last Friday, indicated that areas around the Lake Victoria Basin and Rift Valley highlands will experience significant amounts of rainfall which are likely to be higher than the long-term average received during the same period.

The rains will be accompanied by heavy storms are likely to be more frequent especially during afternoons and evenings.

This will affect Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia Counties.

FLOODING

For counties of Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu, episodes of heavy rains accompanied with strong winds may occur during the month which may result in occasional flash floods experienced even in areas which may not necessarily be raining due heavy rainfall elsewhere.

The expected amounts of rainfall are likely to be higher than the long- term average amounts received in November.

Morning rains and afternoon or evening showers will be experienced over several places in Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi Counties during the month.

The forecast indicated that the beginning of the month is likely to have reduced rainfall with enhanced rainfall expected as the month progresses which may result in occasional episodes of heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds.

This may lead to flooding being experienced in low lying areas and areas which are not properly drained, especially in urban centers with poor drainage with continuous rainfall may cause landslides and mudslides in hilly areas especially in Central Kenya.

North-eastern region covering Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo Counties will experience rainfall higher than the long-term average for November with the heavy rains accompanied with strong winds.

Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta Counties will is likely to experience dry spells at the beginning of the month with enhanced rainfall expected as the month progresses with heavy rains expected leading to occasional flash floods.

Coastal counties of Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale is expected to continue receiving significant rainfall throughout the month with occasional flooding in urban centers with poorly drained streets as well as lower Tana delta in Kilifi County.